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Film Theory: The ULTIMATE Guide to Predicting Oscar Winners -
Published: 4 months ago By: The Film Theorists

By: The Film TheoristsPublished: 4 months ago

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53, 964 Likes   1, 613 Dislikes

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How to Win an Oscar for BEST PICTURE! ►

So last year I helped Leonardo Dicaprio win Best're welcome buddy! This year, I'm focusing on someone more important -- YOU GUYS! Today, I'm determined to give you the PERFECT strategy for predicting the Oscars. Because every office has an Academy Award pool, and it's my job to win you some easy cash. So what's the secret -- watching the Golden Globes (which are tonight, btw) and the SAG awards? Not quite. Watch the Golden Globes to laugh at the antics of the drunk celebrities, but when it comes down to it, your strategy should be a bit more sophisticated. Don't worry -- I got you covered!

Twitter: @MatPatGT

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How to Win an Oscar for BEST PICTURE!

Isabella Taylor
'Isabella Taylor' 4 months ago
Heyyyy notification squad. You're awesome Mat!
Peri Edits
'Peri Edits' 1 week ago
Mat, real talk here, I am so jealous of your job. We are doing a project about writing whatever you want and I am so jealous of what you do that I am doing a something nerdy. Probably how to win the football pool sense our family does it every year. Anyways, you have been the biggest inspiration of my life and thank you so much for posting these videos.
Ella Leale Amor Jamero
notification squad!!!!
psybreon the psyborg umbreon
pat mat
Lionel De
'Lionel De' 2 weeks ago
So I did a post-facto analysis of this analysis to see if the model he built holds any water:

And the answer is..drum roll

The model got only 2 out of the 5 right

Answers the model got right: Damien Chazelle(Director) and Emma Stone(Actress)
Answers the model got wrong: La La Land(Best Film - PGA elected), Denzel Washington(Best Actor - SAG winner) and Moonlight(Screenplay - WGA winner)

I also looked at the Google trends and there was nothing to write home about.

Seems like this particular guide was hard-coded for the last year's winners.
Lionel De
'Lionel De' 2 weeks ago
So I did a post-facto analysis of this analysis to see if the model he built holds any water:

And the answer is..drum roll

The model got only 2 out of the 5 right

Answers the model got right: Damien Chazelle(Director) and Emma Stone(Actress)
Answers the model got wrong: La La Land(Best Film - PGA elected), Denzel Washington(Best Actor - SAG winner) and Moonlight(Screenplay - WGA winner)

I also looked at the Google trends and there was nothing to write home about.

Seems like this particular guide was hard-coded for the last year's winners.
Super sayain god Goku
Same Notification squad
Jonathan Ruys
'Jonathan Ruys' 2 weeks ago
balance mission mystery klwdr CEO agreement housing anyway elevator
John Cena
'John Cena' 2 weeks ago
fuck ourmine
Neo B. Jover
'Neo B. Jover' 2 weeks ago
I want to win the Academy Awards. But I'm going for Best ANIMATED film. Something that my buddy Matpat hasn't covered yet.
Tino De la vega
'Tino De la vega' 2 weeks ago
lol those 600 people voted moonlight
'24KaratCarrot' 3 weeks ago
What's the song at 9:57?
Master Leguichard
'Master Leguichard' 3 weeks ago
You nailed it with the "new" Academy overcorrecting in their voting.
Clorox Bleach
'Clorox Bleach' 3 weeks ago
Step 1: Be White
Step 2: Be relevant to Dads
Step 3: Don't be Leonardo DiCaprio
Bradford Gstohl
'Bradford Gstohl' 4 weeks ago
ɷɷ ᕼEEEEYYY ᖴᖇIEᑎᗪᗪᔕ I ᕼᗩᐯE ᖴOᑌᑎᗪᗪ ᗯOᖇKIᑎGGGG OᑎᒪIᑎE ᕼᗩᑕᑕK ᐯIᔕITTTT : -
Serenity Kolsky
'Serenity Kolsky' 4 weeks ago
Anyone else laugh when he said Skynet? I mean whats the diffrence? Google is already stalking us...
'FocusMrbjarke' 4 weeks ago
Videos starts 13:12
'MysteryMii215' 4 weeks ago
How to win Best Picture: be a film with an all black cast in the 1st Oscars after a lack of black people being nominated for acting in the last two years (not including this year) and being call racist for it (the Oscars, not the film).
Light Champ
'Light Champ' 1 month ago
Actors and actress earn the award and the everyone else earns bragging rights.
N7 petty
'N7 petty' 1 month ago
whoelse zoned out when listening halfway through and hearing some weird beat not realising?
'dcgraca' 1 month ago
13:01 Bill is creepy af... Ty MatPat for adding a new character to my nightmares! He's next to Bonnie, Ballerina, Sophie and Emily. Don't know if you know them... P.S: Love GTLive!!!! Continue to be awesome
'DragonKingDrake' 1 month ago
My friend predicted "La La Land" will win best picture

AFTER the oscars ended
Valdemire Kreshnov
'Valdemire Kreshnov' 1 month ago
Want to know who is going to win at the Oscars?

Just put your money on the one that fits this criteria:

- Gay Lead
- Female Lead
- Oppressed Lead
- Stereotypical Antagonist
- Unoriginal Plot
- Non Hero Movie
- How progressive is the lead Actor

There are few exceptions that deviate.
Rena Seay
'Rena Seay' 1 month ago
Mat pat do a film theory on bug hero 6
B-17 BAWMER???
Timo Beugelink
'Timo Beugelink' 1 month ago
did he mean a Phil theory?
Nikodimos Triaridis
'Nikodimos Triaridis' 1 month ago
I can see the confusion that would have spiraled out of this video for this year's ceremony already...
"Ha! Suck it, Bill! La La Land won Best Picture! God, my prediction was right after all!! Thnak you Matpa-"
"Wait, there's been a msitake! Moonlight won Best Picture!"
Carter Claphan
'Carter Claphan' 1 month ago
hi mat pat im theorizing about who is lemony snicket
Shadow Crew
'Shadow Crew' 2 months ago
will u do a theory when you have so much hard evidence that you dont say thats just a theory and its 100% true?
Molly Katherine
'Molly Katherine' 2 months ago
Thanks MatPat! I won my film class's predictions! I will think of you while eating my prize popcorn & candy, and use my free movie ticket 🙏🏼 god bless
Direct Havoc
'Direct Havoc' 2 months ago
It bothers me that during the intro he calls spiderman's Web string
Okay. Can we talk about how Matpats rouge one theory was SO MUCH BETTER than the actual movie end.
porky guy
'porky guy' 2 months ago
ever heard of for your consideration campaigns? It would be 100% accurate if we knew how many things and money they "gifted" the voters with, but the method you've presented is still pretty spot on :P (somewhat with statistics and such)
The Wanderer
'The Wanderer' 2 months ago
please do a part 2 of poppy
Ramne Berglund
'Ramne Berglund' 2 months ago
U Are The Best Around
'JackGordon' 2 months ago
Do a theory about what really happened during best picture at the oscars 2017
'TheKersey475' 2 months ago
You were mostly right, but the influx of new voters were just enough to throw off the Google algorithm.
'cobrakingofeart' 2 months ago
i can't believe Uno: the Movie didn't win best picture!
'Entertaincube' 2 months ago
'Jimmeh' 2 months ago
Who's here after the Oscars
'ImSecondTooNone' 2 months ago
Wow MAT! the guilds were on the money
Calvin Malvin
'Calvin Malvin' 2 months ago
i Just checked google trends and moonlight was trending up while La La Land was trending down in February. PS another thing google trends is excellent at predicting is presidential elections.
Bert Riser
'Bert Riser' 2 months ago
Thanks MatPat! My wife has beaten me every year. I finally broke her winning streak.
'mestre12' 2 months ago
You gonna need to do a follow up video Mat. Even google got wrong on best picture.
'T Y' 2 months ago
Using advice from this video and some research, here were my predictions:


Actress - Emma Stone, La La Land
Supporting Actor - Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Supporting Actress - Viola Davis, Fences
Directing - La La Land
Animated Feature - Zootopia
Animated Short - Piper
Cinematography - Linus Sandgren, La La Land
Documentary (feature) - O.J.: Made in America
Documentary (short) - The White Helmets
Original Screenplay - Manchester by the Sea
Visual Effects - The Jungle Book
Music (score) - La La Land
Music (original song) - City of stars, La La Land


Best Picture - La La Land
Actor - Denzel Washington, Fences
Adapted Screenplay - Arrival

I only did 16 categories this time but it turned out pretty good. I was unsure about Adapted I would've chosen Moonlight as my other option, and the other two were big surprises. Thanks for the advice matpat it needs a little more research but looks on the right path!
'SonofMrPeanut' 2 months ago
Here are the predictions I had going in, based mainly on this video's method. In attempting this, I ended up missing a bunch of smaller awards while getting all but one of the high-profile statues absolutely right. Incidentally those were the awards I did more Google Trends-tracking with. Maybe I need to expand that to the other categories next year. In the meantime, here are the guesses I had ready:

Best Picture: Moonlight
Best Actor: Denzel Washington (Fences)
Best Actress: Emma Stone (La La Land, or LLL)
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences)
Best Animated Feature: Zootopia
Best Cinematography: LLL
Best Costume Design: Jackie
Best Director: Damien Chazelle (LLL)
Best Feature-Length Documentary: I Am Not Your Negro
Best Short Subject Documentary: 4.1 Miles
Best Film Editing: LLL
Best Foreign Language Film: Toni Erdmann
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Best Original Score: LLL
Best Original Song: “City of Stars,” LLL
Best Production Design: LLL
Best Animated Short: Pearl
Best Live-Action Short: Timecode
Best Sound Editing: LLL
Best Sound Mixing: LLL
Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Best Adapted Screenplay: Arrival
Best Original Screenplay: LLL
'T2D' 2 months ago
I actually won my Oscar pool because of this.
Thiyashi Koththigoda
'Thiyashi Koththigoda' 2 months ago
What if Bill from Accounting sees this video?
Nikodimos Triaridis
'Nikodimos Triaridis' 2 months ago
Well, I don't think ANYONE could have predicted the epic fail that occured in this year's Academy Awards ceremony
Laura Iturralde
'Laura Iturralde' 2 months ago
I trusted you man, I had a huge bet on Lala Land 😭
Trisha Pauline Dela Cuadra
The One and Only Kronos
Anyone else dissapointed in the results from this video?! The math seemed legit, but 46% is a very low percentage after so much investigation about the guilds, google and twitter trends. I don't know, maybe I messed up, but I recommend a follow-up video, Matpat.
Alessandra Hernández Yalta
Gdammit I followed every step and still lost to Bill from Accounting and it's arrogant smug! Thanks, Matpat.
Zoë Masterman
'Zoë Masterman' 2 months ago
Ty matpat thanks to u i got 17 out of the 24 predictions right and won $20!
Gavin Clark
'Gavin Clark' 2 months ago
You could either listen to this video's advice or just bet la la land... it got 14 nominations
- N1ckman21
'- N1ckman21' 2 months ago
Who's watching on Oscar Night 2017?
Patricia de Taquara
'Patricia de Taquara' 2 months ago
I'm actually trying these steps right now. Wish me luck!
Peyton DiGregory
'Peyton DiGregory' 2 months ago
The search traffic for la la land is wayyyyy off the charts
Isabella Westervelt
'Isabella Westervelt' 2 months ago
I did my ballot...I think we've got the win
The Mighty DragonWolf
Watching this episode again to fill out my ballot tonight.
Mr. Bulbasaur
So whats the prediction list based off of this for today?
Ashley Roland
'Ashley Roland' 2 months ago
your so good you definitely got a A in everything in school
Alex Tarau
'Alex Tarau' 2 months ago
Just check Google Trends right now. Lion is leading by more than 50% over any other movie.
Andrew Burks
'Andrew Burks' 2 months ago
According to google trends the winners will be
Best Picture: Hacksaw Ridge or Manchester by the sea
Best Director: Kenneth Lonergan or Barry Jenkins
Best Actor: Viggo Mortensen
Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Best Supporting Actor: Dev Patel
Best Supporting Actress: Nicole Kidman
Best Original Screenplay: Manchester By the Sea
Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Best Animated Feature: Moana or The Red Turtle
Best Original Song: Moana
Gabriel Giron
'Gabriel Giron' 2 months ago
Alright MatPat, I tried your method, and this is was I came up with.

Best Actor: Ryan Gosling for La La Land
Best Actress: Emma Stone for La La Land
Beast Adapted Screenplay: Hidden Figures
Best Original Screenplay: La La Land
Best Director: Denis VIlenvue for Arrival
Best Picture: La La Land
Best Cinematography: Bradford Young

Note that some of the Google Trends and awards for the Guilds and Critics Choice varied greatly.
Remember: You saw it here first
'Pineapple25ski' 2 months ago
Mat you are gonna help me win my family's Oscar's competition, I'll update you all in a couple days
Ninja_gamin 02
'Ninja_gamin 02' 2 months ago
Hey has anyone done the research and wanna share it?
'TheKersey475' 2 months ago
So according to this video, the Oscar winners will be;

Best Cinematography: La La Land
Best Original Screenplay: La La Land/Manchester by the Sea (Tie at Critic’s Choice Awards)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight/Arrival (W.G.A. and Oscars categorize them differently)
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Rose Maxson in “Fences”)
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Juan in “Moonlight”)
Best Actor: Denzel Washington (Troy Maxson in “Fences”)
Best Actress: Emma Stone (Mia Dolan in “La La Land”)
Best Director: Damien Chazelle
Best Picture: La La Land
'TheKersey475' 2 months ago
One flaw with the "Best Picture" theory for this year is that "Moonlight's" plain one word title might not account for people spelling it as "Moon Light" or just the generic term.
Slick Trademarc
'Slick Trademarc' 2 months ago
The WGA put Moonlight in the Best Original Screeenplay Category but it's in the Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars
Jaxel MS
'Jaxel MS' 2 months ago
Hey, a couple tips based on this video's advice: I checked google trends, and, though Moonlight may seem like La La Land's main competition, it's getting NO search traffic. Seriously, check right now, it's almost like no one is searching for it. Meanwhile, the only movie that's seemingly competing with La La Land's search traffic is (surprisingly) Hacksaw Ridge. In fact, today specifically, it beat La La Land's traffic. So, odds are, Hacksaw Ridge is gonna be the most searched by the night of the Oscars.
Nolan B
'Nolan B' 2 months ago
I used this strategy to the letter on this year's ballot and many of the categories are missing. You wrote them off under critic's choice award but the sound and visual oscars vastly outnumber the performance ones and so will make or break predictions, so they might also need to be analyzed further than "Oh just mark down the critics' choice". Also as far as i can tell Singman hasn't run his model this year and best animated picture is a tough call
Sillydude 164
'Sillydude 164' 2 months ago
this clickbait kinda film theory, the thumbnail saus HACK the Oscars, but this is PREDICTING the Oscars!?! Just a little nudge so you might have a chance of reading this and saying "hey! Why don't I change the thumbnail of this video do to clickbait!" Just a thought tht I might mention (WAIT I did mention this just now wat!?!).
Salami Puddin
'Salami Puddin' 2 months ago
Is the google trends step based on worldwide trends or those just in North America?
Sarah Houle
'Sarah Houle' 2 months ago
I'm gonna be honest here, I feel like a piece of media as a whole shouldn't be nominated for more than two awards per award show. Like a movie should only be nominated for two things, but actors can still have two nominations of their own. But like with the Grammys the artist and the album/songs get two nominations total. I just think some people's nominations are a few too many for something that's supposed to be celebrating its entire respective industry.
Jenna Arendse
'Jenna Arendse' 2 months ago
Cristian Delgadillo
'Cristian Delgadillo' 2 months ago
So seriously though for those who do have an oscar competition, who are the possible winners?
Maggie Wainwright
'Maggie Wainwright' 2 months ago
All Murder
'All Murder' 2 months ago
I think there some deeply buried resentment against Bill here
Legendary Destroyer
'Legendary Destroyer' 2 months ago
My name is Bill and I work at accounting! :(
Doggie The Dog
'Doggie The Dog' 2 months ago
Unauthorized Genocide
7:15 Swagga
'thegamingdonut' 2 months ago
The real video starts at 9:58.....
Peter Gao
'Peter Gao' 2 months ago
Lol that subtitle at the end tho.
brown begerson
'brown begerson' 2 months ago
Angry Birds Not Sponcored😂
Stormy skies
'Stormy skies' 2 months ago
I have a question. do you think you could do a Film Theory on the movie 'Inspector Gadget'? Like a theory on what they do in the movie is humanely possible??
Lando 530
'Lando 530' 2 months ago
Why quality not HD....
The Legend Epic_Sama
'The Legend Epic_Sama' 2 months ago
Anyone else notice the subtitles at the end
'NinjaKIngAce' 2 months ago
I clicked on this video because of Deadpool.

Anyway, everyone knows the Oscars are won by whoever campaigned the most.
Derpinator Meepling
'Derpinator Meepling' 2 months ago
At 9:55 when the computer slammed down I started hearing music playing wondering where he was going with it and after 2 minutes I realized that my headphones paused the video and started playing music. Was perfect timing for that to happen.
Buddog88 Gaming
'Buddog88 Gaming' 2 months ago
At 8:24, 40 Oscar statues were shown instead of twenty. Ocd...such ocd...
Andrew Westerlund
'Andrew Westerlund' 2 months ago
All the best movies have subtitles. You should know this MatPat, for this is film theory, not game theory.
Your mommys grandad
'Your mommys grandad' 2 months ago
Puppy monkey baby
Larkin Watches Stuff
'Larkin Watches Stuff' 2 months ago
My school has no person like that but after watching this video it is me.
JellyNutShell Gamer
'JellyNutShell Gamer' 2 months ago
Needs more Текущая
'Weredog53' 2 months ago
This video is better than the actual Golden Gold
Joel Curtis
'Joel Curtis' 2 months ago
Deadpool should have won everything.
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